【tbnation not returning emails california】ETF Scorecard: February 1 Edition
To help investors keep up with the markets,tbnation not returning emails california we present our ETF Scorecard. The Scorecard takes a step back and looks at how various asset classes across the globe are performing. The weekly performance is from last Friday’s open to this week’s Thursday close.
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed a bill to reopen the government for three weeks without obtaining a concession on his key demand for funding a wall along the Mexican border. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, policymakers and the world’s business elites signaled worries about the increasingly powerful technology firms and there was a consensus on the need for global regulation. At the same time, the broad feeling was that no one knew where the monetary policy should head next, with the global economy experiencing a slowdown. The sentiment towards China also was more chilled than previously. The U.S. Federal Reserve made a weird U-turn on monetary policy guidance, implying that the next move in interest rates could either be up or down. This marks an abrupt departure from previous guidance when the Fed indicated that another two raises were likely this year. That scenario now appears to be history. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 120 in January from 126.6 in the previous month, according to the Conference Board. Analysts had expected a decline to 125. Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) has fallen deeper into contraction territory in February, coming in at 48.3 compared with 49.7 in the prior month. Last time the PMI fell to such low levels was in March 2016. U.S. unemployment claims surged to 253,000 for the week ended January 26, largely due to the government shutdown, which left many government employees without current income. According to ADP, the U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in January compared with 263,000 in the prior month. Analysts had forecasted 180,000 jobs.
Risk Appetite Review
Markets rallied again this week, as investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s pause in hiking interest rates. Risk assets (
SPHB
B-) increased the most this week, by 3.91%. Meanwhile, the broad market fund (
SPY
A) was the worst performer with an increase of just 2.55%.
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and get access to real-time ratings on over 1,900 U.S.-listed ETFs.
Etfdb.com risk apetite feb 01 2019
Major Index Review
Major indexes were all up. Dow Jones (
DIA
A-) staged gains of 1.89%, the weakest performance from the pack. Emerging markets (
EEM
A-) was boosted by a weak dollar and optimism that the U.S. and China will reach a trade agreement. (
EEM
A-) is up 4.41% for the past five days. Small-cap stocks (
IWM
B+) is the strongest performer for the past 30 days, advancing 12.78%, while the European and Australasians equities fund (
EFA
A) is the worst performer, up a little over 8%.
Story continues
To see how these indices performed over the past year, check out
ETF Scorecard: January 25 Edition.
Etfdb.com major indices feb 01 2019
Sectors Review
All sectors were up. Financials (
XLF
A) gained the least this week, as the Fed’s rate-hiking pause is likely to hurt the sector’s profitability. (
XLF
A) is up just 1.17% for the past five days. Meanwhile, the real estate sector (
XLRE
) may benefit from lower interest rates, and, as a result, is the best performer, up 5.40%. For the rolling month the picture was rather mixed, with industrials (
XLI
A) and the energy sector (
XLE
A) both up more than 13%. Utilities (
XLU
A) advanced just 3.89% over the past 30 days, representing the worst performance.
Use our
Head-to-Head Comparison tool
to compare two ETFs such as (
XLU
A) and (
XLRE
) on a variety of criteria such as performance, AUM, trading volume and expenses.
Etfdb.com major sectors feb 01 2019
Foreign Equity Review
Chinese shares (
FXI
A-) is the best performer for the week, up nearly 5% as the country benefited from the Fed’s pause in interest rate hikes and optimism about China-U.S. trade talks. India (
EPI
B+) was the only faller for the week and the rolling month, down 0.62% and 1.19%, respectively. Brazilian stocks (
EWZ
B+) remain the best performer for the rolling month, up 16.51%.
To find out more about ETFs exposed to particular countries, check out our
ETF Country Exposure tool
. Select a particular country from a world map and get a list of all ETFs tracking your pick.
Etfdb.com foreign equity feb 01 2019
Commodities Review
Commodities posted mixed results. Natural gas (
UNG
B-) slumped 5.5% for the past five days, despite cold weather in many parts of the U.S. Silver (
SLV
C+) advanced 4.51% last week, representing by far the best performance from the pack. Oil (
USO
A) skyrocketed 20.49% for the rolling month, while the agricultural fund (
DBA
A) was at the other end of the spectrum, rising just 0.24%.
Etfdb.com commodities feb 01 2019
Currency Review
The euro (
FXE
A) lost 1.37% this week, the weakest performance from the bunch. The Australian dollar (
FXA
A-) surged 2.29% on optimism about trade talks between the U.S. and China. (
FXA
A-) is also the best performer for the rolling month, up more than 4%. The U.S. dollar (
UUP
A) was the only currency that declined for the rolling month, down 1%.
Etfdb.com currencies feb 01 2019
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Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.
Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.
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- 5%, led by a 17% increase in average ticket and a slight decline in traffic. Growth in the quarter reflected the impact of households stocking up on essentials like paper goods and cleaning supplies as the pandemic became a nationwide concern, along with strength in discretionary categories as the quarter came to a close and stimulus dollars and tax refunds were disbursed.
As shown below, the results in the quarter materially changed the trend in two-year stacked comps for each of the banners, along with a significant acceleration for consolidated comps.
The increase in consolidated comps was the primary driver of an 8% increase in revenues to $6.3 billion. The company ended the quarter with 15,370 locations, up less than 1% year-over-year. This reflects a 7% increase in Dollar Tree units, offset by a 4% decline in Family Dollar units.
The top-line results at each banner flowed through to their respective income statements, with Dollar Tree gross margins and operating margins declining year-over-year while Family Dollar gross margins and operating margins expanded year-over-year. On a consolidated basis, gross margins contracted by 120 basis points in the quarter to 28.5%, reflective of a shift to lower-margin consumables, tariff costs and the impact of markdowns from the Easter headwinds at the Dollar Tree banner. The company saw slight operating leverage on SG&A from higher comps, with the net result being an 80 basis point contraction in operating margins to 5.8%, with operating income declining 5% to $366 million. This is not adjusted for $73 million of pandemic-related costs, such as PPE supplies.
In the first quarter, the company opened 85 stores (net of closures) and completed 220 Family Dollar renovations to the H2 format. Importantly, comps at renovated Family Dollar stores continue to outpace the chain average by more than 10%. On the call, management indicated that they plan on reducing both the number of new store openings (from 550 to 500) and the number of H2 renovations (from 1,250 to 750) in 2020.
Personally, given the fact that Family Dollar is seeing material benefits to its business from the pandemic with new or lapsed customers coming into its stores, I think the company should try to get more aggressive with its renovation plans, not less. On the other hand, you could argue that renovations cause short-term disruptions and limit their ability to fully capitalize on the business momentum they are currently experiencing.
As a result of fewer new stores and remodels, management now expects 2020 capital expenditures to total $1.0 billion compared to previous guidance of $1.2 billion. In addition, the company has temporarily suspended share repurchases. At quarter's end, the company had $1.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet compared to $4.3 billion in total debt.
Conclusion
In recent years, Dollar Tree has been a tale of two cities. While its namesake banner has generally delivered impressive financial results, Family Dollar has been a persistent underperformer. This quarter, those results flipped, and given what we've seen in the weeks since quarter's end, there's a decent possibility that we will see something similar in the coming months. As the CEO noted, the second quarter is off to a very good start at Family Dollar.
Here's the important question: how useful is that information is in terms of making future predictions about the business? Will recent success at Family Dollar translate into long-term success for the banner? The optimistic take is that new or lapsed customers, especially those visiting the renovated stores, could become recurring business for the banner. The pessimistic take is that they have experienced short-term success out of necessity as people went to any store that was open to try and find essentials like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that were largely out of stock throughout the retail landscape. From that view, many of these customers could abandon the retailer when life returns to normal. As Philbin noted on the conference call, early on [during the pandemic], folks needed us. Will people still shop as much at Family Dollar when it's no longer a necessity?
Personally, I do not place too much weight on the recent results. I will need to see incremental data points that indicate that Family Dollar has truly won sustained business from these new customers. While I still believe that the Dollar Tree banner is a well-positioned retailer with attractive unit returns, I'm not yet willing to say the same thing for Family Dollar. For that reason, along with the recent run-up in the stock price, I plan on staying on the sidelines for now.
Disclosure: None
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